I am starting to believe that 2009 may be a watershed year in the evolution of online research. At least three important developments stand out.
First, after several years of widespread concern about panel data quality the industry appears to be arriving at something approaching a consensus about what constitutes a "good" panel, the steps that a researcher should take when choosing a panel provider, and the best methods for post survey cleaning to produce a useful dataset. The themes one sees unfolding in the ARF's Quality Enhancement Process are similar to those in other industry initiatives such as the ESOMAR 26 Questions and RFL's
Platform for Data Quality Progress. Now we need to execute.
Second, there is the gradual recognition among the more thoughtful people in our industry that the academics were right all along in maintaining that while there are many challenges to conducting true probability sampling, when done right it yields more accurate estimates than the non-probability methods used by all but a few panels. If you've not been following the public debate on this you can pick it up here. No one is suggesting that we should stop using panels, only that we make wiser choices about when to use them, make more restrained claims about their representativeness, and improve our ability to interpret their results.
Third, the research industry is finally coming to realize the preeminent role of questionnaire design in research both as a guarantor of survey data quality and a means of preserving the public's willingness to do surveys. We will continue to have arguments about the best ways to present survey questions, but we know with certainty now that shorter and more engaging surveys are essential to the continued survival of online survey research. Once again, the key will be execution.
Taken as a whole these three developments can at last migrate online out of its "wild west" period and into something resembling a mature research method. Challenges remain and there are many who have yet to catch the wave, but this is most progress I think we've seen over the roughly 15 years since online first emerged. It's been a long time coming and a welcome sight.